At the same time as the global response to the energy c […]
At the same time as the global response to the energy crisis and environmental challenges, China is also committed to strengthening industrial restructuring, promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and changing the development model. Semiconductor lighting has gradually established an important position in the lighting industry due to its superior performance and efficient green characteristics. With the rise of Internet of things and other emerging applications, the trend of intelligence has accelerated, providing a major opportunity for the development of LED industry.
The global market for LED lighting applications is fragmented
Driven by alternative light sources and the global incandescent lamp replacement boom, the global LED lighting market grew rapidly in 2014. However, in 2015, the price of alternative light sources (including tubes and bulb lamps) and other products fell sharply, and the profit of products was not as expected, which made the LED lighting market growth momentum insufficient. LED lighting market size growth has slowed down. In 2015, the global LED lighting market size was 25.7 billion us dollars, an increase of 44% compared with 2014, and the penetration rate of LED lighting market reached 31%. It is expected that the growth of the global LED lighting market will gradually stabilize from 2016 to 2018, and some alternative light sources have been replaced, with the market growth rate stabilizing at around 20%. Lighting companies began to focus on professional lighting, such as commercial lighting, engineering lighting and architectural lighting.
The global LED industry presents the following development characteristics: first, the LED lighting application market is differentiated. Faced with the downward trend of LED lighting product prices, LED companies around the world have been looking for subdivisions to make a contribution. Key enterprises are moving up the value chain, strengthening innovative research and development in industrial lighting, automotive lighting, plant lighting, intelligent lighting and other subdivisions, and providing alternative lighting solutions for different application environments. For example, the global LED industrial lighting market will reach 2.366 billion us dollars in 2015 and 3.935 billion us dollars in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In the industrial field, LED patio lights account for the largest proportion of lighting products, currently the world's key LED enterprises have entered the field, such as general electric, kerui, Toshiba, iwasaki electric, etc.
Second, the growth rate of the global high brightness LED industry has slowed down. Over the past few decades, different application markets have allowed the high-brightness LED industry to grow at a compound annual rate of 20 to 30 percent. In recent years, however, the output growth rate has declined significantly. In 2014, the output value of high-brightness leds was $14.2 billion, the growth rate dropped from 19% to 9%. Output rose only slightly in 2015, to $14.5 billion, up 2% from a year earlier.
Third, mergers and acquisitions of international LED giant enterprises. In 2015, key enterprises in LED industry successively announced the sale or spin-off of LED lighting business, which changed the industry pattern. Philips, the leading lighting company, started a series of spin-offs and restructurings. The sale of an 80% stake in lighting company lumiledsto China's GSRGO Scale Capital for $3.3 billion was announced last year, but has since been rejected and is now looking for a buyer. This year it struck a deal to buy a us manufacturer of OLED light engines and panels. Philips is now planning to spin off its lighting and healthcare businesses.
Osram, a leading European lighting company, sold a 13.47 per cent stake in foshan lighting to guangsheng group in 2015. It is now preparing to spin off part of its lighting business.
In 2015, general lighting, a large traditional lighting company in the United States, announced the integration of LED lighting business and solar energy-related business, and re-established a new company, Current, so that the lighting business has more independence and development space.
Under the pressure of competition, kerui also separated the power devices and rf devices business from the parent company and set up a branch company, so as to reduce the low-profit lighting products business and improve the competitiveness of the core business.
Panasonic of Japan has also made frequent moves. In 2014, it closed its Shanghai lighting plant and its hangzhou plant in China. In the future, it will continue to close its fluorescent lighting plant in Indonesia and its two factories in Japan to shrink its lighting business.
Toshiba of Japan announced its exit from the white LED business in 2015 due to the impact of the falling yen exchange rate and business losses.
China's LED industry to household lighting penetration
In recent years, the market penetration rate of LED lighting in China has increased greatly, and it has been popularized in landscape lighting, road lighting, commercial lighting and other fields, and has accelerated the penetration of household lighting. In 2015, the overall size of China's semiconductor lighting industry was 396.7 billion yuan, up 15% year on year in 2014. Compared with the average annual growth rate of over 30% in the past 10 years, the growth rate was significantly reduced.
From the import and export situation, the export growth rate of China's overall lighting products remained at a high level from 2011 to 2014. In 2014, the total export of lighting products was $41.5 billion, the highest level in recent years, with a year-on-year growth of 16%. In the past four years, the export growth rate of lighting products remained above 10%. Influenced by the global economic environment, the export growth rate of China's overall lighting products also declined in 2015. In the first three quarters, the total export volume of China's overall lighting products was 33 billion us dollars, up 8.5% year on year in 2014, and the growth rate dropped to single digits for the first time.
LED lighting products, as a rapidly emerging product in the lighting industry, saw a rapid increase in export volume from 2011 to 2014. Driven by a global ban on incandescent bulbs, China's LED lighting exports have remained high, rising 50 per cent year on year to $9bn in 2014 and more than 60 per cent for four consecutive years. Since 2015, with the gradual increase of LED lighting penetration, market demand has slowed down, and the export volume of LED lighting products in China has also slowed down. Total exports in the first three quarters of 2015 were us $8.4 billion, up 20 percent year on year from 2014, with the growth rate dropping sharply.
Diversified applications to expand industrial growth points
From the perspective of development opportunities, first, "One Belt And One Road" and other national policies create a favorable environment for industrial development. With the release of the national "One Belt And One Road" policy, a new window of opportunity has been opened for countries along the belt and road to draw on each other's strengths and pursue open development, thus creating a new platform for international cooperation. On the basis of satisfying the domestic market, China's LED industry urgently needs to expand exports and international cooperation to alleviate structural overcapacity. In emerging countries and regional markets such as India, Russia, Africa and southeast Asia, LED lighting market will be further opened with the support of national policies, economic development and industrial transformation and upgrading. India's LED lighting market will be further released in 2016, as the Indian government expects to tender for 200 million LED bulbs in 2016, and the project to replace LED street lamps is open for tender. The southeast Asian market mainly includes Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. The market size and penetration rate of LED lighting have been increasing steadily. The introduction of national "One Belt And One Road" policy provides an important opportunity for LED enterprises to go abroad and creates a good environment for industrial development.
Second, the application of diversified demand for industrial development to provide a new market entry point. With the continuous emergence of a series of new application fields such as plant lighting, security and defense, medical electronics, light source communication and intelligent lighting, the application fields of LED products in China are gradually expanding, providing an important entry point for industrial development. In the last two years, intelligent lighting has provided more than 60 billion yuan market space for China's LED industry; Application fields such as plant lighting and medical electronics have opened the market of ultraviolet LED. The market scale of deep ultraviolet LED will exceed 6 billion yuan in the next three to four years. In 2015, the market size of infrared LED application in security, defense, monitoring and other fields has grown to 120 million us dollars and is expected to continue to climb in the future.
Third, the trend of multi-technology convergence creates important opportunities for industrial development. Under the background of the development of Internet of things and industrial Internet, the integration of LED technology and communication, sensing and integrated circuit technology has become a general trend. Iot applications include smart homes, smart wearables and smart buildings, among which smart lighting technology has become an important platform and cross-border integration of enterprises has become the norm. Through cross-boundary interaction, the combination of lighting and light source, as well as the combination of hardware technology and mobile Internet, can provide a more energy-saving, efficient and comfortable lighting environment and realize intelligent control.
Enhance the core competitiveness of the industrial chain
From the perspective of challenges, one is that the core patents, technologies and standards are subject to others. Current global LED high-end products market and basic by international five big core patent technology monopoly, philips, sharp, osram, daily chemical, Toyota synthesis by cross between five big company authorized license agreement, formation of LED technology and patent pool to cement industry leading position, the patent consciousness of enterprises, such problems as lack of core patent will become our country enterprise development and an obstacle in the import and export trade.
Second, the high-end market lacks competitiveness. At present, most domestic enterprises have mastered the technology of small power LED chip, but they lack competitiveness in high power, special application chip and other high-end fields. For example, China has a low market share in high-end high-power lighting chips and relies on imports for 80%. High-end chips, such as automotive lighting, rely almost entirely on imports, and few companies can produce them in large quantities.
Based on this, two Suggestions are put forward for industrial development. First, strengthen the benign interaction of industrial chain and promote independent core technology innovation. Through guiding the upstream and downstream enterprises to jointly tackle the key problems, to achieve product coordination. Around downstream plants, lighting, automotive lighting, intelligent lighting and other emerging applications of upstream chip technology and middle encapsulation technology put forward new requirements, through various channels, and strengthen the guidance and the support industry chain upstream and downstream backbone enterprises to carry out the strategic coordination, and conduct joint research and breakthrough of key generic technology, and product collaborative development. Focus on promoting key technology innovation, such as silicon LED technology with independent intellectual property rights, homogeneous epitope technology, graphic substrate technology, MOCVD equipment, etc., to enhance the core competitiveness of the industrial chain.
Second, promote the development of industry standards and improve the testing system to enhance patent awareness. Improve LED integrated standardization technology system. Give priority to the formulation of standards that are urgently needed for industrial development and in good conditions, and carry out the revision and formulation of basic standards, component standards and system evaluation standards of LED system in phases and with emphasis, and ensure the promotion and implementation of standards. Relying on the national and local quality supervision and inspection center, strengthen market norms and supervision. At the same time, relying on the competent departments of the industry, associations, alliances and other institutions, the public service platform for LED intellectual property shall be built, the early warning mechanism for intellectual property shall be explored and the patent sharing mechanism shall be established, and the patent pool shall be established and improved.