As the world responds to the challenges of the energy c […]
As the world responds to the challenges of the energy crisis and the gradual deterioration of the environment, China is also committed to strengthening industrial restructuring, promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and transforming development methods. Due to its superior performance and high-efficiency green characteristics, semiconductor lighting has gradually established an important position in the lighting industry. With the emergence of emerging applications such as the Internet of Things, the trend of intelligentization has accelerated, providing significant opportunities for the development of the LED industry.
细分 Global LED lighting application market segmentation
Due to the promotion of alternative light sources and the global incandescent lamp replacement boom, the global LED lighting market grew rapidly in 2014, but due to the sharp decline in the prices of alternative light source products (including lamps and bulbs) in 2015, product profits were not as expected. Makes the LED lighting market growth insufficient. The growth of the LED lighting market has slowed down. In 2015, the global LED lighting market size was 25.7 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44% year-on-year in 2014, and the LED lighting market penetration rate reached 31%. It is expected that the growth of the global LED lighting market will gradually stabilize from 2016 to 2018, and some alternative light sources have been replaced, and the market growth rate is stable at about 20%. Lighting companies began to shift their focus to professional lighting fields, such as commercial lighting, engineering lighting and architectural lighting.
The global LED industry has the following development characteristics: First, the LED lighting application market is segmented. Facing the downward trend of the price of LED lighting products, global LED companies have sought to develop their strengths in segments. Key enterprises are moving towards the high end of the value chain, strengthening innovation research and development in industrial lighting, automotive lighting, plant lighting, intelligent lighting and other sub-sectors, and providing alternative lighting solutions for different application environments. For example, the global LED industrial lighting market size will reach USD 2.366 billion in 2015 and is expected to reach USD 3.935 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In the industrial field, LED patio lights are the largest proportion of lighting products. At present, key global LED companies have entered this field, such as General Electric of the United States, Cree, Toshiba of Japan, and Iwasaki Electric.
Second, the growth rate of the global high-brightness LED industry has slowed. In the past few decades, different application markets have made the compound annual growth rate of the high-brightness LED industry stable at 20% to 30%. However, in recent years, the growth rate of output value has dropped significantly. In 2014, the output value of high-brightness LEDs was 14.2 billion US dollars, and the growth rate dropped from 19% to 9% in the previous year. In 2015, the output value only increased slightly, reaching 14.5 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%.
Thirty-three is the merger and acquisition of international LED giants. In 2015, key companies in the LED industry successively announced the sale or spin-off of the LED lighting business, making the industry landscape change. As the leading lighting company, Philips started the series of splitting and reorganizing plans. Last year it announced that it would sell 80% of its lighting company Lumileds to Chinese capital GSRGO Scale Capital for $ 3.3 billion, but was subsequently rejected because it had not been reviewed and approved, and it is currently looking for buyers again. This year it reached an acquisition agreement with a US manufacturing company that manufactures OLED light engines and panels. Philips is currently planning to spin off its lighting and medical businesses.
Osram, as the leader of European lighting companies, sold 13.47% of its shares in Foshan Lighting to Guangsheng Group in 2015. At present, it plans to spin off and sell part of the light source business.
General Lighting, a major traditional lighting manufacturer in the United States, announced in 2015 to integrate the LED lighting business with solar energy related businesses and re-establish a new company, Current, which has given the lighting business more independence and room for development.
竞争 Under competitive pressure, Cree also separated the power device and radio frequency device business from the head office and established a branch company to reduce the low-profit lighting product business and enhance the core business competitiveness.
Matsushita Lighting in Japan also frequently moves. In 2014, the Shanghai lighting factory and the Hangzhou factory in China were shut down. In the future, the Indonesian fluorescent lamp factory and the two factories in Japan will continue to be closed to fully shrink the lighting business.
东 Toshiba Japan announced its withdrawal from the white LED business in 2015 due to the impact of the decline in the yen exchange rate and business losses.
China's LED industry penetrates into home lighting
In recent years, the market penetration rate of China's LED lighting has increased significantly, and it has been promoted and used in landscape lighting, road lighting, commercial lighting and other fields, and has accelerated penetration into household lighting. In 2015, the overall scale of China's semiconductor lighting industry was 386.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Compared with the average annual growth rate of more than 30% in the past 10 years, the growth rate has dropped significantly.
From the perspective of imports and exports, from 2011 to 2014, China ’s overall lighting product export growth rate remained at a high level. The total export of lighting products in 2014 was 41.5 billion US dollars, reaching the highest level in recent years, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the export of lighting products remained above 10% in 4 years. Affected by the global economic environment, the growth rate of China's overall lighting product exports also declined in 2015. In the first three quarters, the total lighting product exports totaled US $ 33 billion, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2014. The growth rate fell for the first time to Digits.
As a fast-growing class of products in the lighting industry, LED lighting products have seen a rapid increase in exports from 2011 to 2014. Driven by the global plan to ban incandescent lamps, China's LED lighting exports have maintained a high level. In 2014, the total export value was 9 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and the growth rate for the fourth consecutive year was above 60%. Since 2015, with the gradual increase of the penetration rate of LED lighting, the market demand has slowed down, and the export value of China's LED lighting products has also slowed down. The total exports in the first three quarters of 2015 were US $ 8.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the growth rate dropped significantly.
Diversified applications to expand industry growth
From the perspective of development opportunities, one is that national policies such as the “Belt and Road” have created a good environment for industrial development. With the release of the national “Belt and Road” policy, new windows of opportunity have opened for complementary advantages and open development of the countries along the route, and a new platform for international cooperation has been achieved. On the basis of satisfying the domestic market, China's LED industry must urgently expand structural overcapacity through expanding exports and international cooperation. Emerging countries and regional markets such as India, Russia, Africa, Southeast Asia, etc. With the support of national policies, economic development and industrial transformation and upgrading, the LED lighting market will be further opened. For example, the Indian government expects to bid for 200 million LED bulbs in 2016, and the public bidding for street lamp replacement LED projects has begun, so that the Indian LED lighting market will be further released in 2016. The Southeast Asian market mainly includes Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. The LED lighting market size and penetration rate have been steadily increasing. The promulgation of the national “Belt and Road” policy provided important opportunities for LED companies to go abroad and created a good environment for industrial development.
Second, application diversification provides new market entry points for industrial development. With the continuous emergence of a series of new application fields such as plant lighting, security and defense, medical electronics, light source communication, and intelligent lighting, the application fields of China's LED products are gradually expanding, providing an important entry point for industrial development. In the last two years, intelligent lighting has provided more than 60 billion yuan of market space for China's LED industry; plant lighting, medical electronics and other application areas have opened up the UV LED market. The scale of the deep UV LED market will exceed 6 billion in the next 3 to 4 years In 2015, the market size of infrared LEDs used in security and defense, monitoring and other fields has grown to 120 million US dollars, and is expected to continue to rise in the future.
Thirty-three is the trend of multi-technology convergence to create important opportunities for industrial development. In the context of the development of the Internet of Things and the Industrial Internet, the convergence of LED technology and communication, sensing, and integrated circuit technology has become a major trend. IoT applications include smart homes, smart wearables, smart buildings, etc. Among them, intelligent lighting technology has become an important platform, and cross-border integration of enterprises has become the norm. Through cross-border interaction, the combination of lighting and light sources, as well as the combination of hardware technology and mobile Internet, provides a more energy-efficient, efficient, and comfortable lighting environment, while achieving intelligent control.
Improve the core competitiveness of the industrial chain
From the perspective of challenges, one is that core patents, technologies, and standards are subject to others. At present, the global LED high-end product market and core patented technology are basically monopolized by the five international giants. Philips, Cree, Osram, Nichia, and Toyota Synthetic have reached a licensing agreement through cross-licensing to form an LED technology patent pool to consolidate the industry Leading positions, weak corporate patent awareness, lack of core patents and other issues will become a major obstacle to the development and expansion of China's enterprises and import and export trade.
Second, the lack of competitiveness in the high-end market. At present, most domestic enterprises have mastered the technology of low-power LED chips, but they lack competitiveness in high-end fields such as high-power and special-application chips. For example, China has a low market share in high-end high-power lighting chips, and 80% depends on imports; high-end chips such as automotive lighting are basically completely dependent on imports, and there are still a few companies that can mass produce them.
Based on this, two suggestions are made for industrial development: First, strengthen the benign interaction of the industrial chain and promote independent core technological innovation. By guiding upstream and downstream enterprises to jointly solve key problems, product synergy and matching are achieved. Focusing on the new requirements for upstream chip technology and midstream packaging technology in emerging application areas such as downstream plant lighting, automotive lighting, and intelligent lighting, through multiple channels, it has strengthened guidance and centralized support for upstream and downstream key enterprises in the industrial chain to carry out strategic collaboration and joint Tackling key problems, achieving centralized breakthroughs in key common technologies and coordinated development of products. Focus on promoting key technological innovations, such as silicon-based LED technology with independent intellectual property rights, homoepitaxial technology, patterned substrate technology, MOCVD equipment, etc., to enhance the core competitiveness of the industrial chain.
The second is to promote the formulation of industry standards and improve the detection system to increase patent awareness. Improve LED comprehensive standardized technical system. Priority is given to the formulation of urgently needed and mature conditions for the development of the industry, and the revision and formulation of the LED system basic standards, component standards and system evaluation standards will be carried out in stages and focused, and the promotion and implementation of standards will be guaranteed. Relying on national and local quality supervision and inspection centers to strengthen market regulation and supervision. At the same time, relying on industry authorities, associations and other organizations to build LED public service platforms for intellectual property, explore the establishment of intellectual property early warning mechanisms and patent sharing mechanisms, and establish and improve patent pools.